Beanshell Scripting Appendix

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File SPDynamicsInterim.bsh

This Beanshell script was used to generate Figure 4 in Slide 2 of Topic 3 of this tutorial.

/*
* This script contains functions needed to run experiments to obtain the effect of the
* switch day in the Federal Interim policy in the disease transmission model from
* "Emergency response to a smallpox attack: The case for mass vaccination" by Kaplan, Craft,
* and Wein (submitted to the PNAS office directly).
*/

// deaths[i] : the number of deaths when the government switches from Trace to Mass Vaccination
// on day i of the epidemic
// numPoints : number of data points
int numPoints = 51;
deaths = new double[numPoints];

/*
* This collects data for the experiment. To obtain numbers of casualties at day 200 as the
* day of the switch from TV to MV varies from 1 to 51, run
* bsh% SPDynamicsInterim( 200 );
* The experiment should take about 1.7 hours on a 1.0 GHz Windows machine
*
* numDays Number of days for the experiment to run. In the paper, the base case results
* for the interim policy are reported for 165 days. As the day of the switch from
* TV to MV goes up, the number of days to obtain asymptotic behavior in the number
* of casualties goes up as well. For numPoints = 51, running each experiment for
* 200 days is sufficient to get to that asymptotic behavior.
*/
void SPDynamicsInterim( int numDays )
{
    double timeStep = 0.008;
    double beta = 1E-7;
    double initInfected = 1000;
    double totalPopulation = 1E7;
    double r3 = 1.0 / 3.0;
    initSusceptible = totalPopulation - initInfected;

    for (int i=0; i        deaths[i] = 0;
    }

    initSoc = SocietyFactory.createSmallpoxDynamicsSociety( false, timeStep );

    //// set the values of beta and initial number of people infected
    // set initial infected and susceptible populations
    initSoc.getTimeModel().alterKnowledge( initSusceptible, 0, 0 );
    initSoc.getTimeModel().alterKnowledge( initInfected, 0, 2 );

    // set beta
    edu.umich.si.infoelite.minischeme.Interpreter.evaluate(
        new MinischemeExpression( "(set beta " + beta + ")" ),
        initSoc.environment, initSoc.primitives );

    for (int i=1; i<=numPoints; i++ ) {

        // don't run initSoc, make a clone to run so that you can reuse initSoc
        // in the future
        soc = (Society) initSoc.clone();

        // now run the society for the appropriate number of steps of TraceVaccination
        int numSteps;
        numSteps = (int) ( (double)i / timeStep );
        soc.run( numSteps );

        // switch the society from Trace to Mass Vaccination
        SocietyFactory.switchSmallpoxDynamicsToMV( soc );

        // run the society for the appropriate number of steps of Mass Vaccination
        // in other words, the number of steps needed to reach numDays
        numSteps = (int)( (double)numDays / timeStep ) - numSteps;
        soc.run( numSteps );

        // collect and record data - the current population of the dead state - agent 16
        deaths[i-1] = soc.getAgent(16).getKnowledge(0);

        // print out the result
        print( "i-1 " + (i-1) + " : deaths " + deaths[i-1] );
    }
    print("Smallpox Dynamics Experiment complete!");
}

void writeSDResultsToFile() {
    str = "";
    for (int i=0; i        str += deaths[i] + "\n";
    }
    writeStringToFile( str );
}

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